9311 Crescent Mill Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$419,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,577 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,945 sqft lot $163/sqft · 22% below area Est $539k · 22% under $124/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Four-bedroom, three bath home with a two-car garage located in the Sienna Area.

Key facts

• 7,945 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (SPRAI) with annual fee of $1,485

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Office

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (13.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $362k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,312 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,136
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -22.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1610 Country Air Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-7%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	77
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-2%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	74
1706 Country Air Ln	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+5%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	73
1506 Country Air Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+9%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	72
1722 Country Air Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+8%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	69
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-8%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	66
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-6%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	63
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+7%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	62
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+14%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	62
1743 Country Air Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-11%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	54
10023 Starhill Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,930 (+14%)	4mo	$450,000	$154	49
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,874 (+12%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-77,332
• Equity at exit: $88,065

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-120,373
• Equity at exit: $81,570

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$1,294 /mo · $15,523/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$940
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,887

Max offer price $362,312

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.44mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.50mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.56mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Pending 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Pending 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,900 Pending 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $419,900 Pending 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,900 Pending 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $419,900 Pending 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $419,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $419,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    status Active 79-char remark
11. 2026-05-12
    historical 79-char remark
12. 2026-05-11
    listed $419,900 Active 79-char remark
13. 2026-03-05
    historical
14. 2025-09-12
    listed $475,000 Active
15. 2025-09-11
    price $475,000
16. 2025-09-11
    historical
17. 2025-05-19
    price $485,000
18. 2025-05-19
    listed $485,000 Active
19. 2025-04-27
    historical
20. 2025-03-24
    listed $499,000 Active
21. 2025-03-24
    historical
22. 2025-02-28
    price $513,000
23. 2025-01-29
    listed $518,000 Active
24. 2025-01-28
    historical
25. 2024-09-16
    listed $518,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,523 · $1,294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,523 · $1,294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$15,523
• − Insurance: −$2,897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,296
• − Management: −$4,296
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$10,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Paint interior trim — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh greenery can significantly improve curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Paint interior trim — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh greenery can significantly improve curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $485,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $485,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $499,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $513,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $518,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $518,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+106.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,523 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.