267 Candy Ln

Jasper, FL 32052

$150,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,109 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,343/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#731 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamilton (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #68 of 73 in FL (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $150k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.