267 Candy Ln · Jasper, FL 32052

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,109 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 Bed 1 Bath House in the heart of Jasper. Original wood floors, stainless steel appliances, well taken care of. Nice Yard, back deck, BBQ pit, quiet street. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Bbq pit
• Original wood floors

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BACK DECK
• BBQ PIT
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story residential home; Zoned SF (single-family)
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.26-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#731 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamilton (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #68 of 73 in FL (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $150k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,265 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,260
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1737 Lynn St NW	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-0%)	6mo	$155,000	$140	73
406 5th Street St NW	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+1%)	9mo	$188,000	$168	55
412 NW 4th Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-14%)	2mo	$68,000	$71	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $42,350
• Equity at exit: $100,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $128,712
• Equity at exit: $188,942

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32052

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,322/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $130,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-69	+0% $-112	+5% $-154	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-154	+0% $-112	+5% $-70	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-74	base $-112	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $159,000 Active
18. 2009-12-04
    soldstatus $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,322
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$966
• After-tax cash flow: $-377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton
• NCES district ID: 1200720
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,461
• Composite: 26.18/100
• National rank: #7267
• State rank: #68 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #15678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,073

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,405 people
• By 2030: 13,031 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 12,385 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,740 · -12.4%
• By 2075: 9,347 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 6,344 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 30.1% · R 69.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+28.2 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.69%
• Current HPI: 316.4797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+169.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $159,000 NFMLS
• 2009-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,322 · +219.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.