2295 Bluff Mountain Rd

Pigeon Forge, TN 37876

$500,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-1,523/mo
• Annual: $-18,277/yr
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.06%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (53.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (63.0% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (63.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.