2295 Bluff Mountain Rd · Pigeon Forge, TN 37876

$500,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2003 0.65 ac lot $261/sqft · 35% below area Est $724k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and full of potential, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath Smoky Mountain cabin offers 1,800 sq.ft. of finished living space, plus an additional 561 sq.ft. of unfinished garage space ideal for future expansion, game room, or bonus sleeping area. Located in a quiet, accessible area with a partial mountain view, this home features a striking wall of glass that brings in beautiful natural light and frames the surrounding scenery. Inside, you'll find tongue and groove throughout, a cozy rock gas fireplace, and a cabin layout that's just waiting to be furnished and styled for short-term rental success. It hasn't been on the rental market in over two years, so while there's no current income history, professional projections are available and show strong earning potential with some basic updates and added sleeping capacity. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting from your covered hot tub pavilion, roast s'mores around the stone firepit, or simply relax among the low-maintenance rock landscaping. The metal roof provides durability for years to come, and the garage includes an EV charger, offering a modern perk for today's guests. Whether you're looking for a personal getaway or your next short-term rental investment, this property is a fantastic opportunity to customize and add value in one of the Smokies' most desirable markets. Projections of up to $90k available.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (used as investment); Three or more levels (3 stories total)
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Has basement (partially finished with exterior entry)
• Exterior features: Partial fenced yard; Private, sloped lot with views and a waterfall

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Furnished; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (53.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (63.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (63.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,890 (63.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.06%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 22.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $724,374
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -30.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2615 Black Bear Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-10%)	14mo	$595,000	$344	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $169,626
• Equity at exit: $450,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $565,584
• Equity at exit: $971,390

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 22.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,840/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-1,523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,777

Max offer price $230,940

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $500,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $500,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $500,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $500,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $500,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $500,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $500,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $500,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $500,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $500,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $500,000 Active 1489-char remark
17. 2025-12-31
    historical 1374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1374 chars)

    Spacious and full of potential, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath Smoky Mountain cabin offers 1,800 sq.ft. of finished living space, plus an additional 561 sq.ft. of unfinished garage space ideal for future expansion, game room, or bonus sleeping area. Located in a quiet, accessible area with a partial mountain view, this home features a striking wall of glass that brings in beautiful natural light and frames the surrounding scenery. Inside, you'll find tongue and groove throughout, a cozy rock gas fireplace, and a cabin layout that's just waiting to be furnished and styled for short-term rental success. It hasn't been on the rental market in over two years, so while there's no current income history, professional projections are available and show strong earning potential with some basic updates and added sleeping capacity. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting from your covered hot tub pavilion, roast s'mores around the stone firepit, or simply relax among the low-maintenance rock landscaping. The metal roof provides durability for years to come, and the garage includes an EV charger, offering a modern perk for today's guests. Whether you're looking for a personal getaway or your next short-term rental investment, this property is a fantastic opportunity to customize and add value in one of the Smokies' most desirable markets. Projections of up to $90k available.

18. 2025-12-31
    listed $540,000 1374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1374 chars)

    Spacious and full of potential, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath Smoky Mountain cabin offers 1,800 sq.ft. of finished living space, plus an additional 561 sq.ft. of unfinished garage space ideal for future expansion, game room, or bonus sleeping area. Located in a quiet, accessible area with a partial mountain view, this home features a striking wall of glass that brings in beautiful natural light and frames the surrounding scenery. Inside, you'll find tongue and groove throughout, a cozy rock gas fireplace, and a cabin layout that's just waiting to be furnished and styled for short-term rental success. It hasn't been on the rental market in over two years, so while there's no current income history, professional projections are available and show strong earning potential with some basic updates and added sleeping capacity. Outside, enjoy the peaceful setting from your covered hot tub pavilion, roast s'mores around the stone firepit, or simply relax among the low-maintenance rock landscaping. The metal roof provides durability for years to come, and the garage includes an EV charger, offering a modern perk for today's guests. Whether you're looking for a personal getaway or your next short-term rental investment, this property is a fantastic opportunity to customize and add value in one of the Smokies' most desirable markets. Projections of up to $90k available.

19. 2025-12-30
    historical
20. 2025-10-22
    status Active
21. 2025-09-25
    status Pending
22. 2025-09-15
    price $525,000
23. 2025-07-17
    price $540,000
24. 2025-07-14
    price $540,000
25. 2025-06-24
    price $550,000
26. 2025-06-24
    price $550,000
27. 2025-06-05
    listed $560,000 Active
28. 2025-05-30
    price $560,000
29. 2025-05-22
    listed $575,000 Active
30. 2020-12-08
    soldstatus $380,000
31. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus $380,000
32. 2020-11-12
    soldstatus $380,000 Closed
33. 2020-09-26
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
34. 2020-09-25
    listed $358,900 Active
35. 2016-06-01
    soldstatus $173,000
36. 2016-05-31
    soldstatus $173,000 Closed
37. 2016-04-14
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
38. 2015-10-23
    listed $180,000 Active
39. 2015-10-23
    listed $180,000
40. 2000-09-29
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,710/yr (+$142/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$1,840
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$28,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,782
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+5455.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $500,000 GSMAR
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listed $540,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — GSMAR
• 2025-09-25 Pending — GSMAR
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $525,000 GSMAR
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $540,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $540,000 GSMAR
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $550,000 GSMAR
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $550,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $560,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $560,000 GSMAR
• 2025-05-22 Listed $575,000 GSMAR
• 2020-12-08 Sold (MLS) $380,000 GSMAR
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-12 Sold (MLS) $380,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-09-26 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $358,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2016-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-31 Sold (MLS) $173,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2016-04-14 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2015-10-23 Listed $180,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2015-10-23 Listed $180,000 GSMAR
• 2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,840 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.