41 Chapman Rd

Lake Mohegan, NY 10524

$600,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$900
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $-653/mo
• Annual: $-7,838/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-653 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $430k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Garrison Union Free School District (rural): math 70% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 755 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Garrison School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 225 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $600k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.