41 Chapman Rd · Lake Mohegan, NY 10524

$600,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1985 1.20 ac lot $412/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charm of Hudson Valley living is evident in this Garrison, NY home. Set on two tax lots totaling 2.5 acres, it offers privacy and a peaceful natural setting. This Cape Cod–style home features generously sized, light-filled rooms. The living area accommodates both living and dining, with a floor-to-ceiling window and sliding doors opening to the deck for an easy connection to the landscape. An additional main-level room offers flexibility as a den, office, or library. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with wood-paneled cabinetry, providing ample storage and functionality. Upstairs are two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, along with newly installed hardwood floors. The interior has been freshly painted for a seamless move-in. Just ten minutes from the train and close to the Village of Cold Spring’s shops and restaurants, the home offers a charming Hudson Valley setting with easy access to local amenities.

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-653 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $430k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Garrison Union Free School District (rural): math 70% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 755 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Garrison School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 225 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $600k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $429,537 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,206,574
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -50.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Travis Corners Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (-1%)	22mo	$975,000	$676	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-138,825
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-174,442
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10524

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$650 /mo · $7,801/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $-653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,122

Max offer price $484,611

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-314	-5% $-483	+0% $-653	+5% $-823	+10% $-993
Rent	-10% $-993	-5% $-823	+0% $-653	+5% $-484	+10% $-314
Rate	-1.0pp $-351	-0.5pp $-501	base $-653	+0.5pp $-809	+1.0pp $-967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $600,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $600,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $600,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $600,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $628,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $628,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $628,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $628,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $628,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $628,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $628,000 Active 55 DOM
19. 2026-04-19
    price $628,000 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    The charm of Hudson Valley living is evident in this Garrison, NY home. Set on two tax lots totaling 2.5 acres, it offers privacy and a peaceful natural setting. This Cape Cod–style home features generously sized, light-filled rooms. The living area accommodates both living and dining, with a floor-to-ceiling window and sliding doors opening to the deck for an easy connection to the landscape. An additional main-level room offers flexibility as a den, office, or library. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with wood-paneled cabinetry, providing ample storage and functionality. Upstairs are two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, along with newly installed hardwood floors. The interior has been freshly painted for a seamless move-in. Just ten minutes from the train and close to the Village of Cold Spring’s shops and restaurants, the home offers a charming Hudson Valley setting with easy access to local amenities.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $648,000 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    The charm of Hudson Valley living is evident in this Garrison, NY home. Set on two tax lots totaling 2.5 acres, it offers privacy and a peaceful natural setting. This Cape Cod–style home features generously sized, light-filled rooms. The living area accommodates both living and dining, with a floor-to-ceiling window and sliding doors opening to the deck for an easy connection to the landscape. An additional main-level room offers flexibility as a den, office, or library. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with wood-paneled cabinetry, providing ample storage and functionality. Upstairs are two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, along with newly installed hardwood floors. The interior has been freshly painted for a seamless move-in. Just ten minutes from the train and close to the Village of Cold Spring’s shops and restaurants, the home offers a charming Hudson Valley setting with easy access to local amenities.

21. 1996-02-26
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,801 · $650/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,970 · $748/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,170/yr (+$97/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$7,801
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,124
• − Management: −$4,124
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$18,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrison Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3611860
• Math proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $112,505
• Composite: 66.53/100
• National rank: #910
• State rank: #117 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 4,298

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.97%
• Current HPI: 243.0481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+269.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $628,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $648,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,801 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.