Aster Plan 2570 Plan

Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$403,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax + insurance: −$690
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-1,041/mo
• Annual: $-12,492/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.78%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $115,917

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $404k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (43.0% below list).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,304/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.