Aster Plan 2570 Plan · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$403,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan takes up one side of the home, blending a modern kitchen, cozy dining area and spacious Great Room for easy entertaining and everyday transitions. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side, including a lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 149 days

🏗️ New construction. The $403,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $420,992.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $404k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (42.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 772 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,340/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,015 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.80%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,992
• List price: $403,990
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2081 W Roselle Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,275 (0%)	2mo	$389,990	$306	90
2125 W Roselle Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-3%)	2mo	$404,990	$329	84
2139 W Roselle Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-5%)	2mo	$393,990	$327	80
2205 W Ramona Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	2mo	$444,990	$318	73
2189 W Ramona Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	2mo	$451,990	$320	72
2221 W Ramona Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	2mo	$456,990	$324	71
2233 W Ramona Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	2mo	$451,990	$320	70
2648 W Simone Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	0mo	$399,990	$301	68
2776 W Sheppard Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	3mo	$414,990	$312	66
2752 W Shepperd Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	2mo	$375,990	$283	65
2773 W Shepperd Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	3mo	$422,990	$318	63
2864 W Shepperd Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	2mo	$409,990	$308	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-142,596
• Equity at exit: $62,771

10-year hold

• IRR: -83.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-237,517
• Equity at exit: $36,400

Cash invested: $117,878 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $433,990 ($334/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 772
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,208
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,315/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,061

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,683

Max offer price $267,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-770	-5% $-915	+0% $-1,061	+5% $-1,206	+10% $-1,352
Rent	-10% $-1,246	-5% $-1,153	+0% $-1,061	+5% $-968	+10% $-876
Rate	-1.0pp $-849	-0.5pp $-954	base $-1,061	+0.5pp $-1,170	+1.0pp $-1,281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,248
• Closing costs: $12,630
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10014 S Saguaro Dr Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.5	1855	$2,550	$1.37	120d	1	0.05mi
1749 W Stealth Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,195	$1.41	54d	1	0.44mi
1874 W Starfire Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,195	$1.29	10d	1	0.57mi
9699 S Mara Dr Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,295	$1.24	33d	1	0.63mi
1823 W Sombra Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.5	1848	$2,300	$1.24	4d	1	0.76mi
1723 W Sombra Ave , AZ	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,395	$1.41	85d	1	0.77mi
1840 W Spaulding Ave Mesa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,395	$1.29	116d	1	0.79mi
2432 W Shanley Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,295	$1.35	24d	1	0.95mi
2432 W Shanley Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,395	$1.41	37d	1	0.95mi
2474 W Sable Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,295	$1.28	46d	1	1.02mi
2425 W Seaver Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,350	$1.31	0d	1	1.08mi
4463 S Brice Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,995	$1.14	18d	1	1.12mi
6133 S Adelle Mesa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,450	$1.42	139d	1	1.23mi
3246 W Sable Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,399	$1.29	54d	1	1.28mi
548 W Fremont Pass Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	1763	$2,350	$1.33	85d	1	1.32mi
548 W Fremont Pass Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	1763	$2,350	$1.33	89d	1	1.32mi
11317 E Raleigh Ave Mesa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1509	$10,000	$6.63	97d	1	1.41mi
11519 E Persimmon Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,900	$1.69	49d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveLast updated: May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price: $384,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Plan: Aster Plan 2570New construction plan
• Exterior features: Located at 1923 W Roscoe Ave, Apache Junction, AZ 85120

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1275

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $403,990 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $403,990 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $403,990 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $403,990 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $403,990 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $403,990 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $403,990 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $403,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $403,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    price $403,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $402,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $402,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $402,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    price $402,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $401,990 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $400,990 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $400,990 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $400,990 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $400,990 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $398,990 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $398,990 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $398,990 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $398,990 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $398,990 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $398,990 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $398,990 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $398,990 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $398,990 Active 117 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $398,990 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $398,990 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $398,990 Active 114 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    price $398,990 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-08-18
    days on market $397,990 Active 113 DOM
34. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $397,990 Active 112 DOM
35. 2026-08-16
    days on market $396,990 Active 111 DOM
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $396,990 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-08-14
    days on market $396,990 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-08-13
    days on market $396,990 Active 108 DOM
39. 2026-08-12
    days on market $396,990 Active 107 DOM
40. 2026-08-11
    days on market $396,990 Active 106 DOM
41. 2026-08-10
    days on market $396,990 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-08-09
    days on market $396,990 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-08-08
    days on market $396,990 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-08-06
    days on market $396,990 Active 101 DOM
45. 2026-08-05
    days on market $396,990 Active 100 DOM
46. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $396,990 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-08-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 98 DOM
48. 2026-07-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 95 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 94 DOM
50. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 93 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,582
• − Property taxes: −$6,315
• − Insurance: −$2,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − Depreciation: −$12,247
• Taxable loss: −$20,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,958
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is in excellent condition with a good layout and low-maintenance features. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and increase its value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveLast updated: May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price: $384,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Plan: Aster Plan 2570New construction plan
• Exterior features: Located at 1923 W Roscoe Ave, Apache Junction, AZ 85120

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1275