4204 S 343rd Ave

Buckeye, AZ 85354

$255,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,877/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winters Well Elementary School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 785 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $255k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.