4204 S 343rd Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85354

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2002 1.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.3 acres in rapidly growing Tonopah—priced to sell! This spacious lot is located outside the flood zone and includes an easement for access. It features a shared well and power just 350 feet away—perfect for builders or contractors ready to develop. Flat, usable land with tons of potential in an up-and-coming area. Don't miss this affordable investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Open concept
• Variety of trees
• 1.38 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED CONCRETE PATIO
• VARIETY OF TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Shake siding; Wood frame construction; Shake roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Dirt front and back; Gravel/stone front; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Dual pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winters Well Elementary School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 785 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $255k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,000 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $123,475
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $375,354
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85354

• Home prices YoY: 30.5%
• Active inventory: 785
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,903

Max offer price $212,646

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 S 343rd Ave Tonopah, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	20d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 515-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 117,540
• Population (ZIP): 7,731

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 117.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $255,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,600 ARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $252,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $262,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (MLS) $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $270,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $170,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-13 Pending — ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $723 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.