535 20th St

Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$48,500A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $609/mo
• Annual: $7,313/yr
• Cap rate: 21.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.85%
• DSCR: 3.40
• 1% rule: 2.47%
• Cash to close: $13,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($335 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $48k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 8.0% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of water damage and visible stains indicate a major issue that needs immediate attention.
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling paint and siding indicate significant wear and need for replacement.
• Major: flooring — Visible signs of wear and discoloration suggest the flooring needs to be replaced.
• Major: interior walls — Peeling paint and discoloration indicate significant wear and need for repainting.
• Major: HVAC system — Visible signs of wear and discoloration suggest the HVAC system needs to be replaced or serviced.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt landscaping detracts from the property's curb appeal and needs to be pruned and landscaped properly.