1031 Pocahontas Trl

Lincoln, MI 48625

$45,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Built 1948 · Manufactured · Active · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $374/mo
• Annual: $4,484/yr
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.59%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#428 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Farwell Area Schools (town): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #388 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $45k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.