1031 Pocahontas Trl · Farwell, MI 48625

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Manufactured public records · 353 Days on market

Built 1948 6,970 sqft lot $61/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to your own Northern Michigan hideaway with this charming cabin at 1031 Pocahontas Trail in Harrison. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot, this property offers a great opportunity to finish what's already been started-remodeling is underway, including updated bathroom plumbing, and a full set of kitchen cabinets is included with the sale. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or a rustic full-time residence, this cabin has serious potential. Enjoy the peace of nature right from your doorstep-and for the outdoor enthusiasts, you'll love that the end of the road connects directly to the State RV Trails and Fort RV Trails, offering miles of scenic riding and hiking. Located near multiple lakes, ORV trails, and recreational hotspots, this is the perfect up-north escape waiting for your finishing touches.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Multiple lakes
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• UPDATED BATHROOM PLUMBING
• FULL SET OF KITCHEN CABINETS
• MULTIPLE LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.7% in Farwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#622 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Farwell Area Schools (town): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #388 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $45k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.59%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,355
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -63.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $16,496
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $44,962
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $343

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $386	+0% $374	+5% $361	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $341	+0% $374	+5% $406	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $385	base $374	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 350 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 349 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 345 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 335 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 334 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 333 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 332 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 331 DOM
18. 2025-07-04
    listed $45,000 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Escape to your own Northern Michigan hideaway with this charming cabin at 1031 Pocahontas Trail in Harrison. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot, this property offers a great opportunity to finish what's already been started-remodeling is underway, including updated bathroom plumbing, and a full set of kitchen cabinets is included with the sale. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or a rustic full-time residence, this cabin has serious potential. Enjoy the peace of nature right from your doorstep-and for the outdoor enthusiasts, you'll love that the end of the road connects directly to the State RV Trails and Fort RV Trails, offering miles of scenic riding and hiking. Located near multiple lakes, ORV trails, and recreational hotspots, this is the perfect up-north escape waiting for your finishing touches.

19. 2025-07-03
    listed $45,000 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Escape to your own Northern Michigan hideaway with this charming cabin at 1031 Pocahontas Trail in Harrison. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot, this property offers a great opportunity to finish what’s already been started—remodeling is underway, including updated bathroom plumbing, and a full set of kitchen cabinets is included with the sale. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or a rustic full-time residence, this cabin has serious potential. Enjoy the peace of nature right from your doorstep—and for the outdoor enthusiasts, you'll love that the end of the road connects directly to the State RV Trails and Fort RV Trails, offering miles of scenic riding and hiking. Located near multiple lakes, ORV trails, and recreational hotspots, this is the perfect up-north escape waiting for your finishing touches.

20. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus $17,755

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$247/yr (+$21/mo · 124.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$784
• − Management: −$784
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$954
• After-tax cash flow: $3,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farwell Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614100
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,696
• Composite: 24.07/100
• National rank: #7760
• State rank: #388 of 540 in MI

Livability — Farwell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #20973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+153.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-04 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-03 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,755 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · -82.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.