18897 147th St NW

Elk River, MN 55330

$320,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-267/mo
• Annual: $-3,206/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 33% / reading 51%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 557 students, 46% FRL); Vandenberge Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #138 of 258 statewide, top 55%, 512 students, 27% FRL); Elk River Senior High (math 60% / reading 57%, grade C, #56 of 471 statewide, top 12%, 1,637 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 14% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.