18897 147th St NW · Elk River, MN 55330

$320,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1973 0.70 ac lot $195/sqft · 19% below area Est $397k · 19% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rambler styled Home freshly painted on the inside newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, Brand New Furnace!! Roof is a Architectural Shingle 5 years old. Seller are putting in a new septic could be escrowed due to weather. Home sits on .70 of a acreage, heavily wooded. Storage shed in the back yard.

Key facts

• New septic
• Storage shed
• Heavily wooded

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF
• NEW SEPTIC
• HEAVILY WOODED
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 33% / reading 51%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 557 students, 46% FRL); Vandenberge Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #138 of 258 statewide, top 55%, 512 students, 27% FRL); Elk River Senior High (math 60% / reading 57%, grade C, #56 of 471 statewide, top 12%, 1,637 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 14% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $227,081 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,646
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -19.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,928
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,169
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $272,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-177	+0% $-267	+5% $-358	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-357	+0% $-267	+5% $-177	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-186	base $-267	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Contingent - Inspection 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Rambler styled Home freshly painted on the inside newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, Brand New Furnace!! Roof is a Architectural Shingle 5 years old. Seller are putting in a new septic could be escrowed due to weather. Home sits on .70 of a acreage, heavily wooded. Storage shed in the back yard.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $320,000 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Rambler styled Home freshly painted on the inside newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, Brand New Furnace!! Roof is a Architectural Shingle 5 years old. Seller are putting in a new septic could be escrowed due to weather. Home sits on .70 of a acreage, heavily wooded. Storage shed in the back yard.

3. 2026-04-14
   status Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Rambler styled Home freshly painted on the inside newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, Brand New Furnace!! Roof is a Architectural Shingle 5 years old. Seller are putting in a new septic could be escrowed due to weather. Home sits on .70 of a acreage, heavily wooded. Storage shed in the back yard.

4. 2026-03-03
   listed $329,900 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Rambler styled Home freshly painted on the inside newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, Brand New Furnace!! Roof is a Architectural Shingle 5 years old. Seller are putting in a new septic could be escrowed due to weather. Home sits on .70 of a acreage, heavily wooded. Storage shed in the back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$8,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elk River

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #5795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 45,721
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $329,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,996 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.