2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,068 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,558/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$283
HOA
−$360
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$327
Net cashflow
$-304/mo
Annual
$-3,644/yr
Cap rate
4.15%
Cash-on-cash
-7.66%
DSCR
0.66
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (8.3% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $126k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Deborah A. Williams Elementary (603 students, 99% FRL); Fort Miller Middle (623 students, 98% FRL); Fresno High (math 10% / reading 38%, grade F, #934 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 2,092 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 77% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Wood siding
— Visible weathering
Minor: Kitchen cabinets
— Appears dated
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· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29