1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
734 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Manufactured
· Active
· 230 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,107/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$130
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$232
Net cashflow
$73/mo
Annual
$882/yr
Cap rate
9.31%
Cash-on-cash
10.78%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$22,120
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($882/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: New River Elementary School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 721 students, 57% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Landscaping
— The landscaping is minimal and could be improved with some additional plants and shrubs.
Minor: Paint
— The kitchen and living area could benefit from a fresh coat of paint to brighten the space.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QSEXR76G9WVNXH
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29