33 Dogwood St

Au Sable Forks, NY 12941

$140,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,216/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ausable Forks Elementary School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 225 students, 58% FRL); Ausable Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 193 students, 54% FRL); Ausable Valley High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 351 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $140k implies a 583% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.