33 Dogwood St · Au Sable Forks, NY 12941

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 269 Days on market

Built 2023 0.90 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lot that will give you more space. Buildable to a single family home or Vacation Rental with water and electric at the roadside. Au Sable Acre offers Hiking and /ski trails, tennis courts and Lake Eaton for Canoeing and Kayaking pleasure Close to Whiteface Mt. and Lake Placid

Key facts

• Newly constructed
• Adirondack camp
• Almost an acre

Tags

• ADIRONDACK CAMP
• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED
• ALMOST AN ACRE
• NEAR LAKE PLACID

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation; Built with metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Metal roof; Wooded lot; Publicly maintained road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ausable Forks Elementary School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 225 students, 58% FRL); Ausable Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 193 students, 54% FRL); Ausable Valley High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 351 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $140k implies a 583% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $107,382 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,132
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Beech St	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (+2%)	17mo	$300,000	$361	58
23 Red Fox Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	880 (+8%)	4mo	$300,000	$341	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $42,615
• Equity at exit: $102,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $132,484
• Equity at exit: $200,685

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12941

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,185/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $107,382

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-145	+0% $-185	+5% $-224	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-228	+0% $-185	+5% $-141	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-149	base $-185	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 249 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 248 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 247 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $140,000
19. 2026-04-10
    price $150,000
20. 2026-03-18
    status Active
21. 2026-03-18
    price $175,000
22. 2025-09-17
    listed $200,000 Active
23. 2023-01-13
    soldstatus $20,500 Closed 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    This lot that will give you more space. Buildable to a single family home or Vacation Rental with water and electric at the roadside. Au Sable Acre offers Hiking and /ski trails, tennis courts and Lake Eaton for Canoeing and Kayaking pleasure Close to Whiteface Mt. and Lake Placid

24. 2022-10-13
    historical 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    This lot that will give you more space. Buildable to a single family home or Vacation Rental with water and electric at the roadside. Au Sable Acre offers Hiking and /ski trails, tennis courts and Lake Eaton for Canoeing and Kayaking pleasure Close to Whiteface Mt. and Lake Placid

25. 2022-02-24
    listed $24,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    This lot that will give you more space. Buildable to a single family home or Vacation Rental with water and electric at the roadside. Au Sable Acre offers Hiking and /ski trails, tennis courts and Lake Eaton for Canoeing and Kayaking pleasure Close to Whiteface Mt. and Lake Placid

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,185 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,185 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,185
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$4,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Au Sable Forks

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1143
• US rank: #23832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,477

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Current HPI: 431.184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+483.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $140,000 SLCMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $150,000 SLCMLS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — SLCMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $175,000 SLCMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $200,000 SLCMLS
• 2023-01-13 Sold (MLS) $20,500 ACVMLS
• 2022-10-13 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $24,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,185 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.