2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 222 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,464/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$419
Tax + insurance
−$232
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$506/mo
Annual
$6,066/yr
Cap rate
13.89%
Cash-on-cash
27.12%
DSCR
2.21
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$22,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#456 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.1% in Galena Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29