967 Greenwood St

Junction City, OR 97448

$199,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,399/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,829/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#46 in OR, #1,184 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+.
• Junction City SD 69 (town): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #27 of 58 in OR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #205 of 412 statewide, top 51%, 501 students, 50% FRL); Oaklea Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #45 of 128 statewide, top 35%, 490 students, 52% FRL); Junction City High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #69 of 143 statewide, top 54%, 539 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Junction City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.