5750 Paradise Dr

Lumberton, TX 77657

$119,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $541/mo
• Annual: $6,494/yr
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.49%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kountze El (313 students, 76% FRL); Kountze Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 231 students, 63% FRL); Kountze H S (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 327 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 47% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 455 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $119k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.6% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.