5750 Paradise Dr · Lumberton, TX 77657

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2005 Good condition 0.53 ac lot $98/sqft · 20% below area Est $149k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming mobile home located in Lumberton, TX. This is a sought after school district. Nestled on a spacious dead end cul-de-sac lot, this home has a comfortable living environment with an open floor plan and abundant natural light. Enjoy the convenience of a well-appointed kitchen, ample storage space, and a cozy living area. The outdoor space provides room for relaxation on large covered back deck, or gardening. Make this delightful property your new haven.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Covered back deck
• School district

Tags

• SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kountze El (313 students, 76% FRL); Kountze Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 231 students, 63% FRL); Kountze H S (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 327 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 47% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 528 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $119k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.07%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -20.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5585 Westchase Loop	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+21%)	6mo	$254,900	$174	58
5220 Springwood Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-4%)	15mo	$230,900	$198	50
6630 Palace Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+4%)	15mo	$260,000	$207	47
6605 Palace Dr	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+4%)	16mo	$214,900	$170	45
4794 Bryan Ln	1.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,290 (+6%)	7mo	$149,000	$116	44
5820 Perrell Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+8%)	21mo	$239,900	$182	44
5600 Westchase Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+22%)	22mo	$240,000	$162	44
6535 Westwood Cir	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+12%)	4mo	$239,900	$177	42
5755 Westchase Loop	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+23%)	17mo	$259,900	$174	39
5318 Wheeler Rd	0.88mi	3/2.5	1,261 (+4%)	26mo	$224,900	$178	37
6050 Westchase Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+22%)	14mo	$240,000	$162	32
5225 Westgate Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+23%)	18mo	$239,500	$160	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,348
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $40,621
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $79,900 ($69/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +76.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $452	+0% $419	+5% $385	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $360	+0% $419	+5% $477	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $449	base $419	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	154d	1	0.17mi
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	184d	1	0.62mi
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	154d	1	0.66mi
5715 Springfield Cir S Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	0d	1	0.80mi
6534 Westwood Village Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	87d	1	0.81mi
6530 Westwood Village Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	0d	1	0.82mi
6612 Palace Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	91d	1	0.90mi
165 Southland Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	0d	1	0.94mi
5541 Summerville Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	0d	1	1.06mi
3896 Sheffield Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$675	$0.75	0d	1	1.18mi
3896 Sheffield Ln #7 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$900	$0.74	0d	1	1.18mi
65 Jordan Dr Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	154d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2005Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding exteriorMetal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13)Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 10)Bedroom on the second floor (10 x 16)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $119,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $119,000 Active 481-char remark
19. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $22,925
20. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,315/yr (+$110/mo · 152.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$784
• After-tax cash flow: $4,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, and good exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kountze El Middle Kountze Middle F TX #1,077/1,662 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Kountze H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 57,780 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

---

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2005Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding exteriorMetal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13)Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 10)Bedroom on the second floor (10 x 16)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Price history

+170.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $22,925 Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.