5750 Paradise Dr · Lumberton, TX 77657

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2005 0.53 ac lot $98/sqft · 20% below area Est $149k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming mobile home located in Lumberton, TX. This is a sought after school district. Nestled on a spacious dead end cul-de-sac lot, this home has a comfortable living environment with an open floor plan and abundant natural light. Enjoy the convenience of a well-appointed kitchen, ample storage space, and a cozy living area. The outdoor space provides room for relaxation on large covered back deck, or gardening. Make this delightful property your new haven.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Covered back deck
• School district

Tags

• SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (10 x 16)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $119k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.05%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -20.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $40,914
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $113,099
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	0.17mi
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	43d	1	0.62mi
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	13d	1	0.66mi
65 Jordan Dr Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $119,000 Active 481-char remark
18. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $22,925
19. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,315/yr (+$110/mo · 152.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $9,990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,398
• After-tax cash flow: $8,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+170.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $22,925 Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.