16420 Frost Rd

Richland, MI 48626

$174,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,069/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hemlock Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #198 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kc Ling Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 351 students, 32% FRL); Hemlock Middle School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #269 of 493 statewide, top 56%, 335 students, 35% FRL); Hemlock High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 314 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $175k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Richland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.