16420 Frost Rd · Richland, MI 48626

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1994 1.54 ac lot $108/sqft · 36% below area Est $272k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 1.5 acres
• Heated utility barn

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• HEATED UTILITY BARN
• NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Richland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hemlock Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #198 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kc Ling Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 351 students, 32% FRL); Hemlock Middle School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #269 of 493 statewide, top 56%, 335 students, 35% FRL); Hemlock High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 314 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $175k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,769 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,496
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -35.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,097
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-37,334
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48626

• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $159,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-40	+0% $-89	+5% $-139	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-137	+0% $-89	+5% $-41	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-45	base $-89	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $174,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-04-28
   status Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

6. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

7. 2025-11-16
   price $174,900 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

8. 2025-11-16
   status Active 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

9. 2025-11-16
   price $174,900 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

10. 2025-11-16
    status Back on Market 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

11. 2025-11-12
    status Pending 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

12. 2025-11-12
    status Pending 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

13. 2025-10-20
    price $184,900 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

14. 2025-10-20
    price $184,900 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

15. 2025-10-09
    listed $189,900 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2025-10-09
    listed $189,900 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home! This Hemlock area property has so much potential and just needs someone to come in and breathe fresh life back into it. Sitting on just over 1.5 acres, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and the heated 30 x 40 utility barn provides an ample amount of storage. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home would be perfect for a family looking for a slight fixer upper on a nice piece of land. Septic was pumped 2 years ago, new metal roof put on home and barn in the past 5-7 years. Schedule your private showing today!

17. 2001-04-16
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,028/yr (+$86/mo · 161.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$4,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-55/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemlock Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2618180
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,712
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #4999
• State rank: #198 of 540 in MI

Livability — Richland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5563

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,110
• Population (ZIP): 5,813

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.53%
• Current HPI: 198.1279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+66.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $174,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $174,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $184,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $184,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $189,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-09 Listed $189,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · -73.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.