15 Shepherd Ln

Chapel Hill, NC 27514

$139,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Built 1955 · Condo · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$240
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $122/mo
• Annual: $1,460/yr
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in NC, #742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fpg Elementary (math 46% / reading 57%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Phillips Middle (math 57% / reading 73%, grade A-, #29 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 609 students, 30% FRL); East Chapel Hill High (math 79% / reading 67%, grade B+, #100 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,447 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $140k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.