15 Shepherd Ln · Chapel Hill, NC 27514

$139,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Condo public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1955 $240/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo offers a straightforward, low-maintenance lifestyle in a highly accessible location. The interior features a functional open floorplan that connects the kitchen and living areas, creating a clean and versatile space. Spacious bedroom. Ideally situated for convenience, the property is just minutes from campus, downtown, and local shopping. Easy access to major highways simplifies commuting, while nearby trails provide quick access to outdoor recreation. With its proximity to the college and central amenities, this unit is a strong rental unit or an efficient primary residence for those seeking a lock-and-go lifestyle. Community is currently in an HOA-coordinated

Key facts

• Nearby trails
• Open floorplan
• Proximity to college

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• HIGHLY ACCESSIBLE LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• NEARBY TRAILS
• PROXIMITY TO COLLEGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Shepherd Lane HOA; Monthly association fee ($240) covering insurance, maintenance of grounds and structure, sewer, trash, water, and landscaping; Association provides insurance, landscaping, grounds maintenance, trash service, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking in a parking lot; 1 open parking space / 1 parking total
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Site-built property; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick veneer and lap siding exterior; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar, slab, and stem wall foundation; Built on site
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rain gutters; No fencing; Level flooring accessibility feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning with heat pump
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Separate shower (shower only); Smart thermostat; Aluminum window frames with window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in NC, #742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (urban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #24 of 178 in NC (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fpg Elementary (math 46% / reading 57%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 528 students, 40% FRL); Phillips Middle (math 57% / reading 73%, grade A-, #29 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 609 students, 30% FRL); East Chapel Hill High (math 79% / reading 67%, grade B+, #100 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,447 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $140k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,461
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-733
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27514

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $161	+0% $122	+5% $82	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $55	+0% $122	+5% $188	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $157	base $122	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 Willow Dr Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,410	$2.71	16d	17	0.24mi
208 Conner Dr Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,178	$1.35	16d	26	0.32mi
201 S Elliott Rd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,658	$1.65	16d	72	0.55mi
625 S Elliott Rd Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,590	$2.52	16d	45	0.72mi
100 Brandon Rd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,363	$1.70	16d	33	0.82mi
140 Hamilton Rd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0	811	$1,051	$1.30	25d	11	0.91mi
1000 Novus Ln Chapel Hill, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,844	$1.85	16d	24	0.99mi
55 Maxwell Rd Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$1,739	$2.23	16d	54	1.12mi
113 Barclay Rd Chapel Hill, NC	—	1.0	525	$1,650	$3.14	25d	1	1.43mi
600 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd Chapel Hill, NC	1.0	1.0	525	$1,625	$3.10	16d	30	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $139,900
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $142,000 Active
16. 2020-04-29
    soldstatus $84,000
17. 2005-03-03
    soldstatus $955,000
18. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $1,110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 36% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $1,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700720
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,687
• Composite: 54.28/100
• National rank: #1370
• State rank: #24 of 178 in NC

Livability — Chapel Hill

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #742

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chapel Hill, NC
• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 62,515
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 32,951
• Household income: $92,875
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1844.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Asian 15% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.72%
• Current HPI: 210.4553
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-87.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $139,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $142,000 TMLS
• 2020-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $955,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · +53.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.