204 N Willow Way

Cibolo, TX 78108

$235,950D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 396 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,109/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $66,066

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 587 students, 35% FRL); Dobie J H (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 1,347 students, 31% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 13383% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.