204 N Willow Way · Cibolo, TX 78108

$235,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 396 Days on market

Built 2006 7,666 sqft lot Est $271k · 13% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Approximate square footage is 1732. Home is scheduled for completion in April. This home has up to $13,000 in incentives and is subject to change without notice. Call community to verify incentive amount. Ceramic tile. Great options! For more info call 210-566-3348.

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Large yard
• Home office

Tags

• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: WILLOW BRIDGE
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with semi-annual fee (payment frequency: semi-annually); Association transfer fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Built by Centex (approx. 19 years old)
• Construction: Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio slab; Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ceiling fan and full bath (17 x 15); Bedroom 2 (11 x 10); Bedroom 3 (12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower, double vanity, and garden tub (9 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer and dryer connections; Disposal; Dishwasher; Stove/Range; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater; Garage door opener; Living/Dining room combination; Utility room inside; Ground-level/no steps; Open floor plan; Some window coverings remain; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (8 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 587 students, 35% FRL); Dobie J H (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 1,347 students, 31% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 13383% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,337 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,668
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 N Willow Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,724 (0%)	0mo	$235,950	$137	100
328 Willow Vw	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,724 (0%)	9mo	$240,000	$139	80
144 Stream Xing	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,724 (0%)	7mo	$280,000	$162	79
129 Weeping Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-4%)	3mo	$270,000	$163	67
116 Blue Willow	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-7%)	6mo	$239,000	$149	65
109 Creek Run	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-7%)	10mo	$247,000	$154	64
153 Springtree Pkwy	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,819 (+6%)	2mo	$255,000	$140	62
125 Dewberry Park	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-9%)	2mo	$248,000	$157	61
145 S Willow Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-12%)	2mo	$179,999	$119	61
428 Kings Way	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (+0%)	3mo	$310,000	$179	61
121 Willow Blf	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-12%)	10mo	$255,000	$169	54
508 Saltlick	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+7%)	1mo	$310,000	$168	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.47% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,883
• Equity at exit: $74,115

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,252
• Equity at exit: $93,692

Cash invested: $66,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78108

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $204,901

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-109	+0% $-176	+5% $-243	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-254	+0% $-176	+5% $-97	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-116	base $-176	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,988
• Closing costs: $7,078
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 N Willow Way Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1724	$1,750	$1.02	6d	1	0.02mi
18508 Ripps Kreusler Schertz, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1061	$2,499	$2.36	0d	54	0.33mi
145 S Willow Way Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	0d	1	0.34mi
144 S Willow Way Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,735	$1.05	22d	1	0.34mi
220 Foxglove Pass Schertz, TX	2.0	2.5	1058	$1,572	$1.49	26d	1	0.46mi
141 Springtree Gate Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	2219	$2,000	$0.90	26d	1	0.50mi
164 Springtree Holw Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,925	$0.89	18d	1	0.59mi
428 Kings Way Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,099	$1.21	26d	1	0.67mi
1604 Canyon Oak Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1999	$3,950	$1.98	26d	1	0.72mi
181 Harley Hay Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,995	$1.22	26d	1	0.80mi
213 Gravel Gray Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,950	$1.18	0d	1	0.89mi
2921 Candleberry Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$1,850	$0.99	5d	1	1.00mi
3703 Painted Trak Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,800	$0.95	26d	1	1.10mi
4312 Lazy Oak Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,850	$2.71	26d	1	1.11mi
1125 Fawn Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1757	$1,755	$1.00	19d	1	1.28mi
1125 Fawn Dr Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1757	$1,755	$1.00	16d	1	1.28mi
325 Cortijo Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,350	$1.13	6d	1	1.31mi
137 Hidden Fawn Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2232	$1,975	$0.88	26d	1	1.34mi
4604 Summit Hill Dr Schertz, TX	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,195	$1.08	6d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $235,950 Pending 396 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,950 Active Option 396 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,950 Active Option 395 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,950 Active Option 394 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,950 Active Option 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,950 Active Option 390 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $235,950 Active Option 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $235,950 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,950 Price Change 387 DOM
10. 2026-05-21
    price $235,950
11. 2026-01-15
    price $243,500
12. 2025-11-20
    price $248,900
13. 2025-10-02
    status Back on Market
14. 2025-09-25
    historical Active Option
15. 2025-08-23
    listed $1,750
16. 2025-08-01
    price $249,900
17. 2025-06-13
    status Back on Market
18. 2025-04-21
    historical
19. 2025-03-17
    listed $254,000 New
20. 2022-04-17
    price $1,625
21. 2007-04-27
    soldstatus 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Approximate square footage is 1732. Home is scheduled for completion in April. This home has up to $13,000 in incentives and is subject to change without notice. Call community to verify incentive amount. Ceramic tile. Great options! For more info call 210-566-3348.

22. 2007-01-30
    listed $163,016 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Approximate square footage is 1732. Home is scheduled for completion in April. This home has up to $13,000 in incentives and is subject to change without notice. Call community to verify incentive amount. Ceramic tile. Great options! For more info call 210-566-3348.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,217
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,864
• Taxable loss: −$6,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $-634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,790
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2886
• State rank: #152 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cibolo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 49,784
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,784
• Household income: $113,004
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 521.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 22% Black 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Current HPI: 182.7296
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $235,950 LERA
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $243,500 LERA
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $248,900 LERA
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-25 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,750 SABOR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $249,900 LERA
• 2025-06-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-03-17 Listed $254,000 LERA
• 2022-04-17 Price Changed $1,625 RENT.
• 2007-04-27 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2007-01-30 Listed $163,016 LERA

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,738 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.