2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,050 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 133 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,526/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$250
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$321
Net cashflow
$169/mo
Annual
$2,030/yr
Cap rate
7.65%
Cash-on-cash
4.83%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Frank Hartsfield Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 309 students, 71% FRL); Elizabeth Cobb Middle School (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 769 students, 43% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: exterior siding
— Weathered and needs repainting
Minor: interior paint
— Faded and could be refreshed
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· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29