15 Bear Mountain Rd

Danbury, CT 06811

$420,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-786/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-786/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Danbury School District (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #131 of 153 in CT (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.