15 Bear Mountain Rd · Danbury, CT 06811

$420,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1976 0.82 ac lot $340/sqft · at area comps Est $439k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your ideas and unlock the potential of this well-located Danbury property, perfect for investors, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own style. Situated in an established neighborhood, 15 Bear Mountain Road offers a solid layout and desirable features. The home includes a primary bedroom with its own private bathroom, providing a great foundation for a comfortable retreat. The finished lower level expands the living space and features a fireplace, ideal for creating a cozy family room or entertainment area. A screened-in back porch overlooks the backyard, offering a peaceful setting with great potential for outdoor enjoyment. While the property is in need of TLC, it presen

Key facts

• Backyard
• Private bathroom
• Finished lower level

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Built with frame construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Open porch; Lightly wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired baseboard heat; In-ground fuel tank
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; One fireplace; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Domestic hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-786/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Danbury School District (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #131 of 153 in CT (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $359,078 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,992
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Sherry Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,236 (0%)	13mo	$610,000	$494	54
4 Walnut Trl	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,168 (-6%)	18mo	$396,000	$339	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-72,174
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-67,999
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06811

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,296/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,674

Max offer price $408,433

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $53	+0% $-65	+5% $-184	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-207	+0% $-65	+5% $76	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $41	base $-65	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Mendes Rd Danbury, CT	3.0	1.5	1184	$3,800	$3.21	19d	1	0.09mi
6 Brighton St Danbury, CT	3.0	2.5	1272	$4,700	$3.69	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $420,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $420,000 Active 881-char remark
16. 2002-04-01
    historical
17. 2002-02-01
    listed $249,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,296 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,642 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,346/yr (+$112/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$6,296
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,447
• − Management: −$3,447
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$7,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,907
• After-tax cash flow: $1,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danbury School District
• NCES district ID: 0901020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $65,793
• Composite: 23.93/100
• National rank: #7784
• State rank: #131 of 153 in CT

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danbury, CT
• County: Fairfield County · 765,532 people
• City population: 87,061
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• Population (ZIP): 31,228
• Household income: $104,640
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -361.68%
• Current HPI: 258.6639
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+68.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $420,000 Smart MLS
• 2002-04-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2002-02-01 Listed $249,500 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,296 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.