3243 Azalea Dr

Hernando Beach, FL 34607

$369,400C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,937
• Tax + insurance: −$864
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-438/yr
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $103,432

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-438/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $347k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#672 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 523 students, 76% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Hernando Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?