2636 Grove Valley Ln

Dacula, GA 30019

$620,000F

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,477 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax + insurance: −$908
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$746
• Net cashflow: $-1,451/mo
• Annual: $-17,416/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $173,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $620k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (42.7% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $355k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#211 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Puckett'S Mill Elementary School (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #39 of 1,228 statewide, top 3%, 780 students, 22% FRL); Osborne Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #33 of 470 statewide, top 7%, 1,667 students, 25% FRL); Mill Creek High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 424 statewide, top 15%, 2,839 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gwinnett County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 657 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $620k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.