2636 Grove Valley Ln · Dacula, GA 30019

$620,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2000 0.63 ac lot $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $712k · 13% under $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 7-bedroom, 4-bath home around 4500 sq.ft. on quiet, private cul-de-sac in the prestigious Hamilton Mill community of Dacula. Set on nearly half an acre with a natural creek, this property offers rare space, privacy, and comfort. A grand twostory foyer opens to bright, open living areas and kitchen flowing into the family room. Updated kitchen appliances. The main level includes 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, ideal for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite features a spastyle bath with jetted tub and separate shower. All bedrooms are generously sized. The finished basement adds incredible flexibility with a private suite and perfect for a theater, gym, or game room. Walk into equity or use it to customize the home. Original HVAC and water heater, in good working condition. Master bath renovated, others are original. Enjoy a new, extended twostory deck overlooking a wooded, private backyard. Hamilton Mill offers resortstyle amenities: pools, tennis, pickleball, sports courts, fitness center, clubhouse, playground, and a stocked lake. Located in the Mill Creek cluster, close to shopping, dining, and I85. Includes:

Key facts

• Spa style bathroom
• Jetted jacuzzi tub
• Modern appliances

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• SPA STYLE BATHROOM
• JETTED JACUZZI TUB
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• EXTENDED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $620k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (41.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (42.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $355k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#211 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 657 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $620k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,510 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.70%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $712,090
• List price: $620,000
• Delta: -10.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1663 Caldwell Bend Ln	0.31mi	5/4.5	3,504 (+1%)	2mo	$630,000	$180	79
1633 Caldwell Bend Ln	0.28mi	5/4.0	3,236 (-7%)	5mo	$585,000	$181	65
3763 Terrace Hedge Ct	0.30mi	5/4.0	3,205 (-8%)	4mo	$550,000	$172	64
3265 Thimbleberry Trl	0.43mi	5/3.5	3,289 (-5%)	2mo	$530,000	$161	61
3407 Highland Forge Trl	0.28mi	5/4.0	3,932 (+13%)	1mo	$550,000	$140	58
1195 Lamont Cir	0.34mi	5/4.0	3,107 (-11%)	5mo	$605,000	$195	56
1345 Auburn Glen Rd	0.36mi	5/4.5	3,067 (-12%)	5mo	$540,000	$176	56
3315 Thimbleberry Trl	0.46mi	5/4.0	3,103 (-11%)	1mo	$556,000	$179	54
1385 Auburn Glen Rd	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,067 (-12%)	6mo	$555,000	$181	46
3100 Evergreen Eve Xing	0.60mi	5/3.0	3,007 (-14%)	3mo	$365,000	$121	37
1521 Rocky Knoll Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,915 (+13%)	2mo	$500,000	$128	30
3075 Laurel Song Way	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,020 (-13%)	2mo	$435,000	$144	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-189,486
• Equity at exit: $92,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-268,421
• Equity at exit: $53,606

Cash invested: $173,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30019

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 657
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax from tax record: −$594 /mo · $7,124/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $-1,458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,391

Max offer price $362,393

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,107	-5% $-1,283	+0% $-1,458	+5% $-1,634	+10% $-1,809
Rent	-10% $-1,738	-5% $-1,598	+0% $-1,458	+5% $-1,318	+10% $-1,178
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,146	-0.5pp $-1,301	base $-1,458	+0.5pp $-1,619	+1.0pp $-1,782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,000
• Closing costs: $18,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3245 Ambergrove Trce Dacula, GA	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,900	$1.25	25d	1	0.17mi
1254 Six Sisters St Dacula, GA	5.0	5.5	3915	$6,000	$1.53	47d	1	0.31mi
3164 Brooksong Way Dacula, GA	4.0	2.5	2315	$2,389	$1.03	23d	1	0.54mi
1557 Grove Arbor Ter Dacula, GA	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,286	$0.91	45d	1	0.54mi
1172 Eastmill Cv Dacula, GA	4.0	2.0	2312	$2,315	$1.00	0d	1	0.73mi
1435 Lake Heights Cir Dacula, GA	4.0	3.5	2514	$2,600	$1.03	45d	1	0.80mi
1739 Praters Pt Dacula, GA	6.0	3.5	3517	$3,500	$1.00	48d	1	0.91mi
1852 Auburn Rd Dacula, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5	2349	$2,467	$1.05	0d	3	1.07mi
3421 Lynley Mill Ln Dacula, GA	4.0	3.5	2465	$2,425	$0.98	45d	1	1.08mi
3459 In Bloom Way Auburn, GA	5.0	3.0	3196	$3,000	$0.94	20d	1	1.14mi
1925 Heatherton Rd Dacula, GA	5.0	3.0	4198	$3,200	$0.76	25d	1	1.17mi
3373 Fence Rd NE Dacula, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5	2580	$3,235	$1.25	3d	16	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $620,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $620,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $620,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $620,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $620,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $620,000 Price Change 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on marketlisting id $640,000 New 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $640,000 Active 28 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

   Spacious 7-bedroom, 4-bath home around 4500 sq.ft. on quiet, private cul-de-sac in the prestigious Hamilton Mill community of Dacula. Set on nearly half an acre with a natural creek, this property offers rare space, privacy, and comfort. A grand twostory foyer opens to bright, open living areas and kitchen flowing into the family room. Updated kitchen appliances. The main level includes 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, ideal for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite features a spastyle bath with jetted tub and separate shower. All bedrooms are generously sized. The finished basement adds incredible flexibility with a private suite and perfect for a theater, gym, or game room. Walk into equity or use it to customize the home. Original HVAC and water heater, in good working condition. Master bath renovated, others are original. Enjoy a new, extended twostory deck overlooking a wooded, private backyard. Hamilton Mill offers resortstyle amenities: pools, tennis, pickleball, sports courts, fitness center, clubhouse, playground, and a stocked lake. Located in the Mill Creek cluster, close to shopping, dining, and I85. Includes:

10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $640,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $640,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $640,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $640,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $640,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $640,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $640,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $640,000 Active 1142-char remark
18. 2025-11-21
    historical
19. 2025-11-21
    historical
20. 2025-09-18
    listed $680,000 Active
21. 2025-09-12
    historical
22. 2025-09-10
    listed $680,000 New
23. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus $345,000 Closed
24. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus $345,000 Sold
25. 2020-03-02
    status Under Contract
26. 2020-03-02
    status Pending
27. 2020-02-27
    listed $339,000 Active
28. 2020-02-27
    listed $339,000 New
29. 2019-03-13
    historical
30. 2019-03-12
    status Back on Market
31. 2019-02-06
    status Pending
32. 2019-01-30
    status Pending
33. 2019-01-26
    status Under Contract
34. 2019-01-26
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
35. 2019-01-18
    historical
36. 2018-12-19
    price $315,000
37. 2018-12-18
    price $315,000
38. 2018-11-14
    price $334,900
39. 2018-11-14
    price $334,900
40. 2018-10-21
    price $339,900
41. 2018-10-21
    price $339,900
42. 2018-09-14
    price $344,900
43. 2018-09-14
    price $344,900
44. 2018-08-31
    listed $349,900 Active
45. 2018-08-31
    listed $349,900 New
46. 2011-03-23
    historical
47. 2011-03-18
    soldstatus $162,500 Sold
48. 2011-02-28
    status Pending
49. 2011-02-10
    price $160,000 Back On Market
50. 2011-02-10
    price $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,124 · $594/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,124 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,730
• − Property taxes: −$7,124
• − Insurance: −$3,766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,403
• − Management: −$3,403
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$18,036
• Taxable loss: −$29,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dacula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #12728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 51,162
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 51,162
• Household income: $116,583
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 630.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.48%
• Current HPI: 212.925
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+92.0% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $620,000 GAMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $640,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $680,000 FMLS
• 2025-09-12 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $680,000 GAMLS
• 2020-03-30 Sold (MLS) $345,000 GAMLS
• 2020-03-30 Sold (MLS) $345,000 FMLS
• 2020-03-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-03-02 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $339,000 GAMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $339,000 FMLS
• 2019-03-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2019-03-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2019-02-06 Pending — FMLS
• 2019-01-30 Pending — FMLS
• 2019-01-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-01-26 Contingent — FMLS
• 2019-01-18 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2018-12-19 Price Changed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2018-12-18 Price Changed $315,000 FMLS
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $334,900 GAMLS
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $334,900 FMLS
• 2018-10-21 Price Changed $339,900 GAMLS
• 2018-10-21 Price Changed $339,900 FMLS
• 2018-09-14 Price Changed $344,900 GAMLS
• 2018-09-14 Price Changed $344,900 FMLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $349,900 GAMLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $349,900 FMLS
• 2011-03-23 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2011-03-18 Sold (MLS) $162,500 FMLS
• 2011-02-28 Pending — FMLS
• 2011-02-10 Price Changed $160,000 GAMLS
• 2011-02-10 Relisted — FMLS
• 2011-02-10 Price Changed $160,000 FMLS
• 2010-12-30 Pending — FMLS
• 2010-12-01 Listed $180,000 FMLS
• 2006-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $323,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,124 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.