524 E 159th St Unit 2C

New York, NY 10451

$385,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$596
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-113/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-113/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (3.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $372k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $385k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,720/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 6917% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.