185 Long Hill Dr Unit A

Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY 10598

$449,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$522
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $-114/mo
• Annual: $-1,369/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $429k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (13.9% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $387k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 399 students, 16% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Jefferson Valley-Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.