185 Long Hill Dr Unit A · Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY 10598

$449,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Condo · 6 Days on market

Built 1988 $522/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly sought-after Bradford model in desirable Jefferson Village, a vibrant 55+ active adult community. This well-maintained end-unit Condominium offers approximately 1,300 square feet of thoughtfully designed one-level living with no living above or below, providing both comfort and privacy. Step inside to a spacious and comfortable living room that flows seamlessly into the adjoining dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining guests. The eat-in kitchen offers a space for casual dining, while the large private patio creates the perfect setting to relax and enjoy peaceful outdoor living. The primary suite features its own private bath, while a generously sized

Key facts

• No step walkway
• Large private patio
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE PRIVATE PATIO
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NO STEP WALKWAY
• JEFFERSON VILLAGE CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• HOA & community: Part of Condo XI association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, recreation facilities, grounds maintenance and snow removal, and trash service; Association fee covers heat, hot water, gas, water, exterior maintenance, common area maintenance, grounds care, snow removal and trash; Additional biannual JOC recreation fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space); Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Con Edison electric; Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Private entrance; Community in-ground pool (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Private entrance; Pull-down attic stairs; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $429k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Jefferson Valley-Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 399 students, 16% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,771 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-79,922
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-78,545
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10598

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$522
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,012

Max offer price $428,852

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Carriage Ct Unit B Yorktown Heights, NY	2.0	2.0	1555	$3,950	$2.54	23d	1	0.20mi
451 E Main St Jefferson Valley, NY	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,700	$2.27	19d	1	0.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $522 · $6,264/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $449,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,429 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,159/yr (+$263/mo · 248.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,713
• − Management: −$3,713
• − HOA: −$6,264
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$9,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,161
• After-tax cash flow: $793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jefferson Valley-Yorktown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY
• City population: 323
• Population (ZIP): 28,894

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -580.71%
• Current HPI: 248.9112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.