18320 Lawrence Rd

Trilby, FL 33523

$242,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-377/mo
• Annual: $-4,528/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $67,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#884 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.