18320 Lawrence Rd · Trilby, FL 33523

$242,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $198k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW ROOF , NEW AC, This is your opportunity to own a fantastic home full of character and charm! Patio, Granite Countertops 4 Bedrooms, 2 Bath. .. Bring your special touches and make it your today! Don't miss, schedule your showing today! The Seller offering up to $10,000 toward Buyer closing costs or rate buy down.

Key facts

• Built 1966
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1966
• Construction: Single-family home built in 1966
• Exterior features: Located in the Hillcrest Manor subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#884 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,868 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.72%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18425 Lawrence Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+6%)	24mo	$210,000	$188	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $107,559
• Equity at exit: $218,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $335,557
• Equity at exit: $470,153

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,466/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,889

Max offer price $175,013

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$543/yr (+$45/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,466
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$9,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Trilby

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #24726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+203.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $242,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-15 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-13 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-06 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-31 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-22 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 2022-07-01 Sold (MLS) $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-02 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-13 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $79,750 Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Sold (MLS) $79,750 HCAR
• 2005-06-07 Sold (MLS) $79,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-18 Listed $79,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-03 Listed $79,750 HCAR

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,466 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.