145 Raleigh Ln

West Islip, NY 11795

$685,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax + insurance: −$919
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $-719/mo
• Annual: $-8,628/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $191,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $685k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-719 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $558k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($675k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#239 in NY, #3,746 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• West Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #167 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Paul J Bellew Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 456 students, 10% FRL); Udall Road Middle School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 445 students, 19% FRL); West Islip Senior High School (math 97% / reading 72%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,262 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.6% in West Islip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.