1940 Townline Rd

Lewiston, MI 49756

$119,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $134/mo
• Annual: $1,607/yr
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#479 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewiston Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,091 of 1,397 statewide, top 79%, 153 students, 76% FRL); Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP.
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Lewiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.