3125 Birkdale Dr

Elfers, FL 34690

$135,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-516/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-516/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $135k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?