15806 Appleton Ter

Bowie, MD 20716

$375,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$761
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $58/mo
• Annual: $692/yr
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($692/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (6.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $353k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#159 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northview Elementary (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #590 of 860 statewide, top 70%, 567 students, 62% FRL); Benjamin Tasker Middle School (math 11% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 1,044 students, 52% FRL); Bowie High (math 31% / reading 73%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 2,460 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.