15806 Appleton Ter · Bowie, MD 20716

$375,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 0.39 ac lot Est $536k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Fenced yard
• Ideal floor plan

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• FENCED YARD
• BRAND NEW WINDOWS
• IDEAL FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($692/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#159 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northview Elementary (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #590 of 860 statewide, top 70%, 567 students, 62% FRL); Benjamin Tasker Middle School (math 11% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 1,044 students, 52% FRL); Bowie High (math 31% / reading 73%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 2,460 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,563 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15702 Appleton Ct	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,016 (0%)	1mo	$620,000	$308	92
2210 Penfield Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,018 (+0%)	12mo	$515,000	$255	63
2543 Ann Arbor Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-14%)	9mo	$503,000	$291	57
2205 Pecan Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,872 (-7%)	11mo	$440,000	$235	54
2000 Arbor Hill Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,103 (+4%)	10mo	$545,000	$259	52
15591 Peach Walker Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (-7%)	1mo	$520,600	$278	51
16404 Edgepark Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,170 (+8%)	12mo	$575,000	$265	45
2412 Panther Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-14%)	9mo	$460,000	$266	42
15215 Noblewood Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,254 (+12%)	9mo	$535,000	$237	40
15210 Noblewood Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,780 (-12%)	9mo	$505,000	$284	35
16308 Eddinger Rd	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,208 (+10%)	10mo	$650,000	$294	35
15211 Noblewood Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,786 (-11%)	11mo	$465,000	$260	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-51,155
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-14,654
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20716

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$605 /mo · $7,258/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,453

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $164	+0% $58	+5% $-48	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-82	+0% $58	+5% $197	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $153	base $58	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Lawndale Dr Unit 1001 Bowie, MD	3.0	3.0	1606	$3,100	$1.93	24d	1	0.51mi
16103 Eastlawn Ct Bowie, MD	5.0	3.5	2208	$5,000	$2.26	20d	1	0.80mi
15604 Everglade Ln Bowie, MD	3.0	3.0	1462	$3,000	$2.05	46d	1	0.99mi
4013 Estevez Ct Bowie, MD	3.0	3.0	1765	$3,000	$1.70	46d	1	1.15mi
16913 Saint Marion Way Bowie, MD	3.0	3.5	2597	$3,200	$1.23	46d	1	1.19mi
1550 Adamson Way Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,700	$2.20	46d	1	1.19mi
16912 Saint William Way Bowie, MD	4.0	3.5	2219	$4,000	$1.80	46d	1	1.19mi
16312 Elkhorn Ln Bowie, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$3,470	$2.14	26d	1	1.19mi
3511 Saint Robin Ln Bowie, MD	3.0	3.5	1792	$3,650	$2.04	46d	1	1.19mi
1303 Port Echo Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	2052	$3,295	$1.61	26d	1	1.31mi
1303 Port Echo Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	2052	$3,495	$1.70	46d	1	1.31mi
15758 Pointer Ridge Dr Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	1566	$2,900	$1.85	46d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2025-06-30
   soldstatus $460,000
2. 2025-05-02
   status Pending
3. 2025-04-29
   listed $375,000 Active
4. 2024-07-17
   historical
5. 2024-07-16
   listed $430,000 Active
6. 2012-07-26
   soldstatus $330,000
7. 2012-07-03
   soldstatus $330,000 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

8. 2012-07-03
   price $330,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

9. 2012-07-03
   soldstatus $330,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

10. 2012-04-26
    status Contract
11. 2012-04-24
    historical 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

12. 2012-04-19
    listed $349,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

13. 2012-04-19
    listed $330,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Spectacular four bedroom colonial on a quiet cul-de-sac in Mitchellville East. New granite countertops, updated flooring and appliances in Expanded Kitchen. New carpet and window treatments, freshly painted throughout. Ceiling fans and large closets in all bedrooms. Large tree-filled lot featuring a spacious deck, gazebo and fenced back yard. NO HOA. Street is a snow emergency route.

14. 1990-03-14
    soldstatus $200,000
15. 1985-12-31
    soldstatus $129,240

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,258 · $605/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,258 · $605/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$7,258
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,385
• − Management: −$3,385
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #7194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowie, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 105,324
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,362
• Household income: $125,034
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -302.27%
• Current HPI: 285.1976
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+255.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-03 Sold (MLS) $330,000 MRIS
• 2012-07-03 Price Changed $330,000 MRIS
• 2012-07-03 Sold (MLS) $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-04-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-19 Listed $349,999 MRIS
• 2012-04-19 Listed $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $129,240 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,258 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.