30 S Peace Aly

Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$192,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Built 1930 · Townhouse · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,768/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-517/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $53,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-517/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East High Street El Sch (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 481 students, 46% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Ms (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #283 of 512 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 40% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $192k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.