30 S Peace Aly · Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$192,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Townhouse public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1930 2,178 sqft lot $116/sqft · 8% below area Est $210k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

"Cute as a button!!" WHY RENT??? Great starter home or an awesome investment property! So much potential. 3 nice sized bedrooms, 1 bath, large LR and DR and cute kitchen with large walk in pantry and mudroom. Adorable corner lot with some fragrant landscaping, offers 2 level deck, small concrete side patio, little bitty yard and 1/2 shed, shared but separated with adjoining neighbor. Gas heat, roof has been replaced by Seller she thinks maybe 2004 with 30 or more year shingles. Most windows have been replaced, 4 more to be done! With some handywork & TLC, this is a treasure for starting out! Time for this empty nester to fly! Sold "AS IS!" No repairs will be made

Key facts

• 2 level deck
• Large walk in pantry
• Built 1930

Tags

• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• 2 LEVEL DECK
• SMALL CONCRETE SIDE PATIO
• SHARED BUT SEPARATED SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Nearby parking lot (borough lot)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Natural gas available; Cable TV available
• Home design: Semi-detached structure; Frame construction with metal siding; Composite roof; Permanent foundation; Entry level and facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built year source: Assessor; Frame construction with metal siding; Composite roof; Permanent foundation; Replacement insulated windows
• Exterior features: Level lot; Wood privacy fencing; Shed on the property; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Country-style kitchen with table/eat-in space
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate plank; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Electric hot water; Cooling via ceiling fans, attic fan, and window units
• Interior features: Attic with attic/house fan; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Curved staircase; Traditional floor plan; Formal dining room; Country-style kitchen with eat-in/table space; Pantry; Plaster walls; Wood and carpeted floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (dryer is electric); Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-517/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East High Street El Sch (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 481 students, 46% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Ms (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #283 of 512 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 40% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $192k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,834 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,662
• List price: $192,500
• Delta: -8.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 E Park St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,710 (+3%)	3mo	$251,000	$147	79
305 N Market St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,688 (+2%)	10mo	$229,900	$136	70
303 N Market St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,712 (+3%)	9mo	$263,000	$154	67
54 Maize Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-0%)	10mo	$307,000	$186	63
7 Pfautz Cir	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,581 (-5%)	8mo	$330,000	$209	59
1 Pfautz Cir	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,739 (+5%)	8mo	$370,000	$213	57
452 E High St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+3%)	12mo	$226,000	$132	54
37 Spring Garden St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,770 (+7%)	8mo	$251,150	$142	51
2 Pfautz Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,753 (+6%)	15mo	$340,000	$194	51
312 E Park St	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,517 (-8%)	14mo	$240,000	$158	47
15 Beech Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,848 (+12%)	6mo	$289,500	$157	47
108 Sawmill Run	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,476 (-11%)	10mo	$280,000	$190	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,360
• Equity at exit: $28,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,631
• Equity at exit: $16,644

Cash invested: $53,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17022

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,538/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $184,888

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $11	+0% $-43	+5% $-98	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-113	+0% $-43	+5% $27	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $6	base $-43	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,125
• Closing costs: $5,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Orange St Elizabethtown, PA	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	25d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $192,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,500 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $192,500 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $192,500 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $192,500 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $192,500 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $192,500 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $192,500 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $192,500 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $192,500 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,500 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $192,500 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,500 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,500 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,500 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $192,500 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $192,500 Active 812-char remark
19. 2000-07-06
    soldstatus $56,000
20. 1994-09-06
    soldstatus $71,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,538 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,538 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,783
• − Property taxes: −$3,538
• − Insurance: −$1,629
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$5,600
• Taxable loss: −$3,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$894
• After-tax cash flow: $377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabethtown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209120
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,380
• Composite: 46.94/100
• National rank: #2361
• State rank: #123 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #1759

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elizabethtown, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 31,908
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,908
• Household income: $86,767
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.73%
• Current HPI: 266.3184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+167.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $192,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $71,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,538 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.