3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,647 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Manufactured
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,132/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$498
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$868
Net cashflow
$1,198/mo
Annual
$14,372/yr
Cap rate
11.10%
Cash-on-cash
17.17%
DSCR
1.76
1% rule
1.38%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Rancho Mirage Elementary (309 students, 86% FRL); Rancho Mirage High (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #804 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 1,491 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 73% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,132/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QVTY3M1SH67P6X
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29