2844 Tupper Dr

Bay City, MI 48706

$172,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-990/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $48,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-990/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 726 students, 36% FRL); Bay City Western High School (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #183 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,102 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.